Current mood:	bouncy
Current music:	When a Man Is In Love With a Man - Of Montreal
Entry tags:	fic, ginny/pansy, percy/oliver

Probability - a Percy/Oliver flashfic
Title: Probability
Summary: Percy does the math.
Pairings: Percy/Oliver, Ginny/Pansy, meta/crack (OTP!)
Rating: PG-13
Warnings: explicit math, nerdy innuendos.
Length: 700 words plus a bunch of back-of-the-envelope (really napkin) calculations because I was taught always to show my work.
Disclaimer: See below? There's math, ergo, I'm obviously not J.K.R. However, I am playing with her characters for fun, education and no profit whatsoever.
Author's notes: Thanks to imogenelovelace for the beta, and to magneticpole for asking "Are any of the Weasleys plausibly gay?"

Ginny, still clutching Pansy's hand, sank down onto a barstool. "I mean, seriously, what are the chances?" she said, then flagged down the bartender for another, desperately needed drink. "Poor mum."

Percy said "Hmmm," in that affected way of his, adjusted his glasses and stole the napkin from under Oliver's glass. He scribbled a bit with a quill and ink he'd produced from god-knows-where - honestly, even worse than Pansy and her handbag! Ginny was just beginning to worry that her brother had cracked under the strain of encountering an estranged family member at a gay bar, when Percy pronounced, rather triumphantly, "Naught point one five!"

"Pardon?" said Ginny. She was certain she must have misheard, given the loud techno beat filling the room, but wasn't quite sure if "Naughty fun dive" made more sense coming from Percy, even if she had been having quite a good time before running into her brother.

"Well, 0.1496, really, but close enough," said Percy, like that explained anything.

"What is the swot on about?" asked Pansy, from her perch on Ginny's lap.

"Well, obviously I'm assuming a binomial distribution, and a ten percent chance across each of seven children."

Oliver laughed and pressed a kiss into Percy's slightly unruly hair, and said, rather besottedly, "Do you even know how adorable you are?"

Ginny had no words for responding to that: prolonged exposure to Percy had clearly driven his boyfriend 'round the proverbial bend as well.

"Of course, that's quite cautious an estimate," Percy carried on, like anyone really cared... and indeed, Ginny was faintly disturbed to note that Oliver Wood was looking at her brother like mathematical proof might be a particularly kinky form of foreplay. "For example, if you used Kinsey's dataset from the fifties, which would be rather consistent, really - you know, given that I dated Penny, and Ginny dated all of those boys - that would make neither one of us a Kinsey Six, I'd say that two or more out of seven Weasley children being involved with members of the same sex is quite probable, even."

Pansy snickered and nicked Ginny's drink, while Ginny tried hard to find words.

This was easy not to do given that Oliver was gazing adoringly at her brother like he'd taken too many bludgers to the head, which was just about the only part of the situation that made a certain amount of sense: Ginny supposed he probably had to be a bit touched in the head to enjoy spending time with Percy, of all people.

Oliver was just starting to gabble about how he considered himself very lucky indeed, and Percy was blushing and insisting that it was really just a simple matter of stochasticity and that there wasn't any such thing as luck, just probability, when Ginny finally interjected, "Merlin! I don't believe you!"

Percy of course interpreted this literally, and waved his napkin in her face. "No, really, even our conservative estimate is actually quite a lot bigger than the chances of having had one or no girls in as many children, which is, oh, right, just exactly one sixteenth. And that clearly happened, didn't it?"

Ginny massaged her temple, willing her head not to explode.

Percy blinked owlishly at her, then added, "But I do see your point about how a binomial distribution might really be quite inappropriate on account of the underlying assumptions of independence, what with genetics and all. But again, that only makes it more likely, so let's just agree to use 0.15 as a lower-bound. A very conservative lower bound."

"But that's just about the only thing that's conservative!" Oliver said gleefully, bouncing up and down on his barstool a little, then leaned in closer and said into Percy's ear something that may or may not have been "Plus you know you can investigate my lower bound anytime."

Ginny grimaced and whined into Pansy's hair, "Circe's bountiful bosoms, it was a rhetorical question!"

Secretly, though, it was a bit reassuring that no matter who he dated, and whom he was snogging in public, and whether or not he might possibly be wearing glitter, Percy would always be Percy.

And there you have it, the nerdiest thing I have ever written! (And my apologies about the messy handwriting - it's actually quite hard to write neatly on a napkin!)

ETA: Woe, I am mortified that there was a > vs < error! Seriously, no more writing fic or doing math in a state of extreme long-term sleep deprivation.